ChainTalk AMA:Tone Vays Talk about the US crude oil slump and BTC The things about

By Currency cattle 2020-04-26 14:30 368


 hello everyone,This is every Friday night8On timeChainTalk AMA。I amTEAMZOfCEOSo is itChainTalk AMAHost yang Tianyu。

 TEAMZIs a blockchain solutions company based in Tokyo, Japan。The headquarters is located in Tokyo, Japan。Our core business is marketing,Committed to the global market promotion of Japanese blockchain enterprises and the Japanese market landing of overseas blockchain enterprises。TEAMZOwned by3The core service channels are Japan's largest blockchain summitTEAMZ BLOCKCHAIN SUMMITTEAMZStrategic consulting,Online activities and media platformChainTalk

 Welcome to expand the Japanese market。

[introduction to guests]

Tone He has a master's degree in financial engineering and a bachelor's degree in mathematics and geology from Florida State University。ToneWorked on Wall Street10year,stayBear Stearns(Bear Stearns)to serve asAnalyst risk2008JP Morgan Chase after the financial crisis in(JP Morgan Chase)Vice president of。 Hisbe good atEconomic trend analysis,Transaction and risk analysis。 since2013Since joining the digital cryptocurrency ecosystem at the beginning of the year,He has been actively promoting the necessity and importance of digital cryptocurrency,Because it helps to promote economic freedom。ToneNow it isToneVays.comThe founder of。

[questions about the actual situation]

Tian: US Eastern time4month20day,About to be in local time21Due on5monthWTICrude oil futures collapse,More than300%,This is also the first time in history that negative values have occurred,It means that the US crude oil market will usher in"Negative oil price Era"。Most people think that5monthWTIThe imminent expiration of crude oil futures contracts and the collapse of global crude oil demand are the main reasons for the sharp drop。

I'm also concerned about your presenceYouTubeThe title is"Market Pulse - $OIL is Worth Less than the Empty Barrel it's In!"Share,In the video, you also mentioned many times that the drop in crude oil futures price is a unprecedented historical moment

First of all, I hope you can share with us the reasons for the sharp drop in crude oil futuresIs that right?


The primary cause of oil price collapse,It must be a global blockade。There is no demand for oil,4Crude oil futures fell to negative value in January,On behalf ofCrude oil futures contract holdersWould rather sell at a negative price,alsobe unwillingReceiving physical crude oilBecause holding more1Months will cost more。

in addition,5Crude oil futures contract will be delivered soon,But no company has any additional demand for oil right now。If until5The economy remained sluggish at the end of the month,in my submission 6Crude oil futures in may also fall into negative value。

 As for the global market, the U.S. oil market will not perform very well in the coming weeks or even for a relatively long time,What do you think of it?


I have a negative attitude towards it,But oil prices could suddenly rise at any time

The bottom of the stock market,It happened in the early days of the United States blockade,It's not the end of the blockade。Investors always invest their money in,He thinks the future is profitable。

Tian: Your recent tweet:"For those who want to buy less than10People who profit from oil in dollars,Must read book: John·Hull(John Hull)Options,Futures and other derivatives --->I read it all when I was in financial engineering"

Can you share with us some of the key points in this book?

Tone :

"option,Futures and other derivatives,。This is a very professional book on financial engineering,Teach people about finance and the mathematical principles behind financial models。

 I have another one2This recommendation。One isJimmy SongWritten"The Little Bitcoin Book"AndTyler JenksWritten"Hyperwave Theory"。Jimmy and TylerThey are all my best friends。


[questions about bitcoin]

 Tian: We are in a period of global economic crisis,Covid-19The impact on the stock market is huge,But bitcoin doesn't seem to have been hit like stocks。In such a turbulent global market environment,Do you think the price of bitcoin will sufferCovid-19epidemic situation、US stocks tumble、WTICrude oil price plummeting and other effects? Why?


The price of bitcoin has long been affected by the epidemic。 stay3Mid month,When the stock market crashed,More bitcoin。

however,I think bitcoin's worst is over。As for the stock market,I'm not sure。

in my submission,exceed12Within months, people will start to see bitcoin as a safe haven,And it can bring them higher returns。

meanwhile,I noticed the government's move,Central bank issues e-money,And gradually abandon cash (China could be one of the pioneers),This will attract more people into bitcoin。

I think so,Enterprises closed down due to epidemic situation,Will cause the government to lose a lot of profits,So raise taxes。

Introduction of stricter laws in the legal system,It will benefit bitcoin。

in my submission,Because some countries will leave the EU,Even expelled from the EU,The euro, as a common currency, will be here10Collapse in。

All of this,Will lead people to bitcoin。also,The halving is coming in a few weeks,So once the daily supply of bitcoin is halved,Selling pressureIt will be greatly reduced。

 Tian: Remove the influence of external factors,Back to bitcoin itself。With your understanding of tecoin 5end of the monthBTCWill halving the third incentive affect prices? There are many experts competing2020Bitcoin's price performance,What do you expectBTC2020What's the highest price? And when to reach the highest price?


in my submission,The good news of halving has long been digested by the market,We are seeing a rise in the currency price,It could be the last price hike before it was halved。 I can predict in the next month or two,The price of currency soared to$8500-9000。After that, the currency will fall back。But I don't think it will fall back again$5000

 If the economy continues to slump,The price of the currency may not rise too much,Because people don't want to risk the little money left。As for the arrival2020end of the year,I think the currency price will reach about$10000

 Tian: According to Chinese digital cryptocurrency media reports,China's bitcoin network computing power accounts for as much as65%。China's mining machinery manufacturers bitcontinental and Jianan,China's mining enterprisesAntpoolIn the global market。For China in theBTCWhat do you think of the absolute advantage of mining industry and the whole network computing power? Do you think this pattern is going to have an impact on the futureBTCWhat is the impact of the industry?


in my submission 65%It's an overvalued number,The actual share should be smaller。and,It's just because the management of the mine pool is in China,It doesn't mean that the participants in the mine are Chinese,It could be someone from other countries。

Bitland has not been able to innovate in the near future,I don't think they are as important to the global mining machine market as they used to be。JiananIt's just selling mining machines,I don't think they're actually digging。

I think bitcoin mining is fragmented,And it won't become centralized in the future。

 Tian: In the last issue ofRoger VerOfAMAin,We talked about itBTCandBCHRelated topics。Rogerexpress"The reason why you are interested in bitcoin is that bitcoin's original vision is to provide speed,cheap,Reliable payment system,and Bitcoin was committed to becoming a new currency for the world。however,Today's bitcoin is no longer the original bitcoin。Now bitcoin is just consuming its own reputation。"

aboutRogerWhat do you think of the nature of bitcoin today? Bitcoin really lost its originalvisionDid you?


I don't agreeRogerThe point of view of。

 In the past time,Bitcoin failed to reachRogerExpectations of,That's why he's trying to take only the market valueBTC 3%OfBCH,Build intoBTCInferior competitors。most important of all,Decentralized features of bitcoin,High computing power ensures the security of bitcoin,Make it a store of value,In order to attract more users。 I'm quite sure,Wechat payment is faster than any cryptocurrency。Every developed country in the world has a low price/Fast payment,Bitcoin's competitiveness has never been low price or speed。BTCCore competitiveness of:

1. It became the first asset in human history that could not be confiscated

2. No need to go through a third party,Direct payment

3. The quantity is limited。( BCHrelativeBTCIt's just inflation)

BCHThere is no one of these advantages。becauseBCHIt's central,Most of the power lies in the imageRogerIn the hands of such people。To me,The non confiscation of assets is the most important。This is also the website I createdUnconfiscatable.comWhy。

 [questions about the exchange]

Tian: The most active digital cryptocurrency industry is now the exchange Also known as the industry's pillar industries。At present, the number of exchanges has also reached an unprecedented large scale。Just in theCoinMarketCapThere is334home。As a senior trader,What do you think of the rising exchanges around the world? Will the current pattern of global exchanges be disrupted in the future? What kind of exchange is the last laugh?


 Ryan: My point is,The exchange industry will eventually merge and unify。To create a new exchange and get traffic,It's very difficult,Because some money speculators will be used to the exchange they have been using,Another part of the people who fry money will choose the trading platform that everyone is using。334In an exchange,The exchanges that are really important to the industry, I think, are10home,Other exchanges are optional。The future of the exchange,A lot depends on regulation, too。

 Tian : The number of exchanges in the Chinese market is increasing rapidly,In the face of fierce competition,Coin security,Fire coin,OKExChinaThree swordsmen of the exchange Leading the global exchange rankings。From the perspective of trading users, can we use one sentence to evaluate the user experience of the three exchanges?


I was there a long time agoOKExI've been trading on,currentOKExIt must have been optimized。But I think the tools provided by exchanges are still too crude,Because I am used to the traditional professional securities industry。I personally objectICOs

 [questions about the transaction]

Tian: You once said that"In today's market,hope,Luck and long-term valuation models are not effective strategies for active traders。 If you don't believe in buying and holding,Then you need to master the skills of other professional traders,So that you can participate in this high-risk game."

As a professional trader What makes you keep a very good record in this high-risk game? As an ordinary trader,How to quickly and accurately grasp the skills of other professional traders? Is there a shortcut to share with you?


first,The most important skill is risk management。secondly,It's patience and trust in your carefully researched trading strategy。I try to teach people how to trade,Let them make their own decisions and design trading strategies。I believe in technical analysis and charting,But there are other ways。As long as you follow your own trading strategy,You'll have a good record。If you blindly follow the advice of other coin speculators,Your performance will be unsatisfactory。

 Tian: As a professional trader,What excites you most now? It is through experience and professional skills to harvest results after the transaction Or do you share your experience with your fans,See them do a good job on the deal?


I became a lecturer,And I'll be on my ownYouTubeChannel upload bitcoin related video。Bitcoin is definitely expensive to promote,So I have to make money from other sources。The constant rush distracted me from trading,So I started teaching people how to trade on weekends。Now I'm isolated at home,So I started doing full-time trading again。I planned to6Climb the Great Wall in Beijing in May,But the plan was delayed,I don't know when the epidemic will end。IYouTubeMost of the audience are money speculators,So most of the videos I do are about trading,To provide them with useful information。